Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 8.468059 9.720748 11.070989 12.631627 14.382671 16.283595 18.500231
2026-01-25 6.594580 8.280340 10.239862 12.673870 15.603151 19.001202 23.226736
2026-02-01 5.651637 7.520672 9.801019 12.765315 16.491604 20.993231 26.812574
2026-02-08 4.853661 6.811299 9.307138 12.686750 17.102523 22.630529 30.021842
2026-02-15 4.230030 6.222486 8.863025 12.568076 17.573181 24.032582 32.919621
2026-02-22 3.789743 5.819475 8.605494 12.641564 18.258000 25.703666 36.207365
2026-03-01 3.509303 5.601670 8.565489 12.982874 19.292951 27.857288 40.205288
2026-03-08 3.114646 5.170814 8.177261 12.787375 19.546153 28.934800 42.763621
2026-03-15 2.684253 4.637765 7.587231 12.240768 19.242032 29.193221 44.161798
2026-03-22 2.527103 4.514009 7.594789 12.570992 20.217852 31.291290 48.233392
2026-03-29 2.365664 4.365376 7.547342 12.804993 21.050357 33.205292 52.105185
2026-04-05 2.153528 4.110096 7.307616 12.715247 21.373263 34.369083 54.908610
2026-04-12 1.949527 3.852390 7.048536 12.583588 21.633657 35.467634 57.692685
2026-04-19 1.791906 3.660917 6.883343 12.590777 22.109141 36.909457 61.052983
2026-04-26 1.667575 3.516377 6.783639 12.693913 22.734277 38.595832 64.838865
2026-05-03 1.526098 3.324814 6.585200 12.611504 23.042784 39.788177 67.890598
2026-05-10 1.394057 3.137341 6.377559 12.494911 23.279892 40.865484 70.788211
2026-05-17 1.300975 3.017340 6.282305 12.567511 23.835684 42.471808 74.581159
2026-05-24 1.250215 2.978532 6.334597 12.907246 24.865732 44.891045 79.772844
2026-05-31 1.138379 2.799963 6.105911 12.712688 24.942466 45.721160 82.377574
2026-06-07 0.998300 2.544870 5.706709 12.168919 24.361090 45.408549 83.058655
2026-06-14 0.963549 2.519694 5.762984 12.497433 25.374229 47.852536 88.453411
2026-06-21 0.921152 2.472706 5.770768 12.730232 26.218922 50.031977 93.465623